Kazakhstan a better credit risk than California

This may be more amusing than instructive, but here goes. This chart shows 5-year credit default swaps on bonds issued by the State of California and the government of Kazakhstan. As Bloomberg’s Chart of the Day notes, California would be ranked as the world’s eighth-largest economy, while Kazakhstan’s economy is only one-sixteenth as large. Yet the market is saying that California’s bonds are 50% more risky than those of Kazakhstan.

In case you’re wondering, similar credit default swaps on Greek government bonds are trading at 364 bps (only slightly higher than California’s 303). Iceland 524, Portugal 163, Spain 130, and Italy 128.

via Calafia Beach Pundit: Kazakhstan a better credit risk than California.

How Long Till Human-Level AI ?

we surveyed a number of leading specialists at the Artificial General Intelligence conference (AGI-09) in Washington DC in March 2009. These are the experts most involved in working toward the advanced AIs we’re talking about. We asked the experts when they estimated AI would reach each of four milestones:

* passing the Turing test by carrying on a conversation well enough to pass as a human

* solving problems as well as a third grade elementary school student

* performing Nobel-quality scientific work

* going beyond the human level to superhuman intelligence

The range of best-guess time estimates for the AGI milestones without massive additional funding is summarized below:

via How Long Till Human-Level AI? | h+ Magazine.

unravel the ‘lean mean machine’ that is cancer

Scientists from Sydney’s Garvan Institute of Medical Research have published a paper, online today in Nature Cell Biology, describing gene expression in a prostate cancer cell: more sweeping, more targeted and more complex than we could ever have imagined, even five years ago.

The study shows that changes within the prostate cancer cell ‘epigenome’ (biochemical processes that target DNA and affect gene expression) alter the expression of many genes, silencing their expression within large regions of DNA nearly 3% of the cell’s genome.

Epigenetic ‘events’ include ‘DNA methylation’ and ‘chromatin modification’. Methylation occurs when a methyl group – one carbon atom and three hydrogen atoms – attaches to a gene, determining the extent to which it is ’switched on’ or ’switched off’. Chromatin, responsible for the physical coiling or structuring of DNA, can determine whether or not a gene is accessible for interaction with other molecules inside a cell.

Project leader Professor Susan Clark describes the typical cancer cell as a ‘lean mean machine’. “Epigenetic changes reduce the available genome to a point where only the genes that promote cell proliferation are accessible in the cancer cell,” she said.

“We can see that the epigenome is remodelled in a very consistent and precise way, effectively swamping the expression of any gene that goes against the cancer cell’s interests.”

“The swamping encompasses tumour suppressor genes, and all the neighbouring genes around them, as well as non-coding RNA, intergenic regions and microRNAs. Only those genes essential for growth activation are allowed to be active, while all the genes and regions that apply brakes are inactivated.”

“We now have an epigenomic map of the prostate cancer cell which we didn’t have before. That has taken three years to develop, including the technology and methods to interpret our tissue samples.”

“The map tells us that the tumour cell is very different from the healthy cell. It also tells us that it works in a programmed rather than a random way, and that it targets a significant part of the genome, rather than just single genes.”

“It tells us that treating cancer will be far more complex than we imagined, as it will first involve understanding and reversing epigenetic change.”

via What it might take to unravel the ‘lean mean machine’ that is cancer | BreakThrough Digest Medical News.

Bloom Reveals New Fuel Cells

The up-to-now secretive startup Bloom Energy took the wraps off its technology this week, unveiling a fuel-cell system that the company claims can run on a variety of fuels and pay for itself in three to five years via lower energy bills.

The company’s founder and CEO, KR Sridhar, said at the official unveiling of the company on Wednesday that the technology–when it’s powered by natural gas–can cut carbon dioxide emissions in half compared to the emissions produced conventional power sources, on average. Several major companies, including Google, eBay, and Walmart, have already bought Bloom’s technology, and in the few months these fuel cells have been in operation, they’ve generated 11 million kilowatt hours of electricity (about enough to power 1,000 homes for a year).

via Technology Review: Bloom Reveals New Fuel Cells.

OTOH …

Sam Jaffe, Renewable & Distributed Energy Blog, gives us “Four Things Bloom Energy Forgot to Tell the World,” namely that the fuel cell ”does not produce electricity more efficiently than centralized generation, isn’t much cleaner than centralized generation, and is more expensive to produce than most other forms.  Finally, Jaffe notes the process theoretically has energy storage capability*, but it isn’t clear when the capability may be made available.

Most Greeks Endorse Government Fiscal Measures

On Feb. 22, Papandreou referred to the government’s announced measures, saying, “Even though there are austerity measures and they do hurt, the government has the support right now of about 50 per cent to 60 per cent of the population. What we’re seeing here, and I haven’t seen this except during the Olympic Games in 2004, is a real sense of unity by the Greek people of wanting to make a change.”

Polling Data

Do you think the recent measures implemented by the government will lead the country out of the fiscal crisis?

Yes	51.3%
No	43.0%

Source: MARC / Ethnos
Methodology: Interviews with 1,000 Greek adults, conducted in February 2010. No margin of error was provided.

via Most Greeks Endorse Government Fiscal Measures: Angus Reid Global Monitor.

China insider sees revolution brewing

China’s top expert on social unrest has warned that hardline security policies are taking the country to the brink of ”revolutionary turmoil”. In contrast with the powerful, assertive and united China that is being projected to the outside world, Yu Jianrong said his prediction of looming internal disaster reflected on-the-ground surveys and also the views of Chinese government ministers. Deepening social fractures were caused by the Communist Party’s obsession with preserving its monopoly on power through ”state violence” and ”ideology”, rather than justice, Professor Yu said.

He cited statistics showing the number of recorded incidents of ”mass unrest” grew from 8709 in 1993 to more than 90,000 in each of the past three years. ”More and more evidence shows that the situation is getting more and more tense, more and more serious,” Professor Yu said.

”Corrupt officials have such a high and urgent interest in controlling the media and especially the internet,” he said. ”The more they feel that their days are numbered due to the internet and free information, the more ferocious and corrupt they become, in a really vicious circle leading to final collapse.”

via China insider sees revolution brewing.

How nuclear equipment reached Iran

Early last year, a Chinese company placed an order with a Taiwanese agent for 108 nuclear-related pressure gauges. But something happened along the way. Paperwork was backdated. Plans were rerouted, orders reconfigured, shipping redirected.

And the gauges ended up in a very different place: Iran.

via AP Enterprise: How nuclear equipment reached Iran – washingtonpost.com.

The Day Trader’s Paradise

What do you get when you have space for a custom office setup, a good amount of cash, and the vision to make it all happen? Dozens of monitors and the need for your own personal power plant.

via The Day Trader’s Paradise – Workspaces – Lifehacker.

Crisis in Turkey :: Daniel Pipes

Thus has the AKP thrown down the gauntlet, leaving the military leadership basically with two unattractive options: (1) continue selectively to acquiesce to the AKP and hope that fair elections by 2011 will terminate and reverse this process; or (2) stage a coup d’état, risking voter backlash and increased Islamist electoral strength.

At stake is whether the Ergenekon/Balyoz offensives will succeed in transforming the military from an Atatürkist to a Gülenist institution; or whether the AKP’s blatant deceit and over-reaching will spur secularists to find their voice and their confidence. Ultimately the issue concerns whether Shari’a (Islamic law) rules Turkey or the country returns to secularism.

Turkey’s Islamic importance suggests that the outcome of this crisis has consequences for Muslims everywhere. AKP domination of the military means Islamists control the umma‘s most powerful secular institution, proving that, for the moment, they are unstoppable. But if the military retains its independence, Atatürk’s vision will remain alive in Turkey and offer Muslims worldwide an alternative to the Islamist juggernaut.

via Crisis in Turkey :: Daniel Pipes.