A Bear’s Bets on the Future [Pomboy]

I’m keeping my powder dry. I’m long Treasuries because I think there will be a moment when people realize the economy isn’t as strong as they think. At the same time, there will be a flight back to safety. Both forces should benefit Treasuries. I’m also bullish on oil and gold because emerging economies will want those resources. I have more than 50% of my portfolio in cash and gold. I have physical gold, money in the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) [an exchange-traded fund], and gold mining stocks. I don’t view gold as being in a bubble. To me, gold is a currency—my protection against further debasement of the dollar.

As for stocks, I would overweight U.S. multinationals that sell things everybody around the world is going to want to buy, like Procter & Gamble (PG). I would avoid high-end-retail stocks. I personally have a short position in the Nasdaq 100 index, and I would never recommend that for individual investors. They are better off waiting to figure out where the growth opportunities are.

The Stats: Stephanie Pomboy is founder and president of financial research firm MacroMavens, which serves institutional investors, including global hedge funds and some of the largest U.S. mutual funds. She worked with economist Ed Hyman at ISI group for 11 years before starting MacroMavens in 2002.

via Investing: A Bear’s Bets on the Future – BusinessWeek.


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