speculative longs set new records

The Fed’s jawboning has already triggered substantial speculative pressure across most asset classes. The net speculative long position in crude oil has surged to 209,535 contracts (contracts of 1,000 barrels). To put that in perspective, the largest net long position by non-commercial accounts on the Mercantile Exchange in 2008, when crude touched $145/bbl, was 152,282 contracts. Talk about danger levels of speculative activity — it is 40% higher today with oil at $80/bbl than it was back then at the price peaks.
The net speculative longs in copper are now 24,017 contacts. Platinum and palladium are off the charts (25,639 and 15,379 contracts, respectively). Corn is at 449,834 net longs. Gold is at a record 282,254 net longs. The net speculative long position in the Aussie dollar looks nuttier than it is in the case of the loonie — 67,788 net speculative long contracts. The net speculative long position in the yen (45,927 contracts) is in the upper end of the historical range even though the Bank of Japan is doing everything but wield a machete at the currency to weaken the thing.
Meanwhile, what are speculators short? The bond (8,261 contracts) and the VIX (17,176 contracts — the sixth largest ever; talk about complacency).

via  Breakfast_with_Dave_101810.pdf


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s