Something Is Happening (postive!)

Something is happening. I am not saying it is a trend, but the data are suggesting some improvement in the economy. This is the first time I have said this in two years. It may just be a temporary phenomenon since there are so many headwinds against a recovery. Perhaps it is just that things aren’t getting worse. Also these data do not change my mind about Q3 and Q4 being weak. But the data are important and should not be ignored.

Here is what I am seeing.

Wholesale inventories are growing faster than sales

Business inventories also increased

Retail sales have actually been “OK” lately

money supply is growing … Bank credit and bank loans are improving, or, to put it more accurately, they have flattened out and are not still collapsing


full details here:

via Something Is Happening | The Daily Capitalist.


2 thoughts on “Something Is Happening (postive!)

  1. is there any room for insight, intuition ? Has the other shoe dropped yet and do people who are stocking up know what is coming ? Will those buying and those stocking the shelves be affected by the chaos that is coming in Mideast and potential further decline in housing market ? Or is this best left to philosophers no pun intended ?

  2. good questions. i would say yes, you need both data and intuition. a huge part of predicting the future is guessing how other people will react.

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