Something is happening. I am not saying it is a trend, but the data are suggesting some improvement in the economy. This is the first time I have said this in two years. It may just be a temporary phenomenon since there are so many headwinds against a recovery. Perhaps it is just that things aren’t getting worse. Also these data do not change my mind about Q3 and Q4 being weak. But the data are important and should not be ignored.
Here is what I am seeing.
Wholesale inventories are growing faster than sales
Business inventories also increased
Retail sales have actually been “OK” lately
money supply is growing … Bank credit and bank loans are improving, or, to put it more accurately, they have flattened out and are not still collapsing
full details here: