Hendry: Markets are pricing in hawkish rate hikes

Hugh Hendry, manager of the Eclectica fund, explains why central banks’ inaction on interest rates has led markets to take matters into their own hands.
hendry-hugh

The market has become emphatic. We are in the midst of an orthodox, read strong, economic recovery and monetary policy is deemed too loose.

Not willing to wait for official rate hikes, the money markets have taken matters into their own hands: a hawkish series of rate increases has been priced into forward curves.

We are now very close to the rate pricing environment of 2004/07 when the global economy enjoyed almost unprecedented strong synchronized growth. The message from the fixed income desk is clear: we are preparing for a global boom.

We, of course, dissent.

(lots of detail in the full article)

we continue to believe forward rates are either correct, should we witness another global boom (unlikely in our opinion), or are rapidly approaching very profitable trading levels should any subsequent rate tightening cycle be moderated by a recovery that fails to scale the dizzy heights of its predecessor.

via Hendry: Markets are pricing in hawkish rate hikes.

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