The Is The Way The Hopium Ends: Not With A Bang, But With The Biggest Collapse In Future Consumer Expectations… Ever
The charts below demonstrate the 6 month change in the 6 month forward looking Consumer Confidence outlook: in other words, this chart measure just how deceived US consumers have been by hopium consumption 6 months ago compared to reality now. In short: 2011 has been the most disappointing year for Americans in history. Whether it is due to excess hopium consumption or not… well, it is not irrelevant.
Lawrence Solomon, National Post
Friday, Aug. 26, 2011
New, convincing evidence indicates global warming is caused by cosmic rays and the sun — not humans
The science is now all-but-settled on global warming, convincing new evidence demonstrates, but Al Gore, the IPCC and other global warming doomsayers won’t be celebrating. The new findings point to cosmic rays and the sun — not human activities — as the dominant controller of climate on Earth.
The research, published with little fanfare this week in the prestigious journal Nature, comes from über-prestigious CERN, the European Organization for Nuclear Research, one of the world’s largest centres for scientific research involving 60 countries and 8,000 scientists at more than 600 universities and national laboratories. CERN is the organization that invented the World Wide Web, that built the multi-billion dollar Large Hadron Collider, and that has now built a pristinely clean stainless steel chamber that precisely recreated the Earth’s atmosphere.
In this chamber, 63 CERN scientists from 17 European and American institutes have done what global warming doomsayers said could never be done — demonstrate that cosmic rays promote the formation of molecules that in Earth’s atmosphere can grow and seed clouds, the cloudier and thus cooler it will be. Because the sun’s magnetic field controls how many cosmic rays reach Earth’s atmosphere (the stronger the sun’s magnetic field, the more it shields Earth from incoming cosmic rays from space), the sun determines the temperature on Earth.
The hypothesis that cosmic rays and the sun hold the key to the global warming debate has been Enemy No. 1 to the global warming establishment ever since it was first proposed by two scientists from the Danish Space Research Institute, at a 1996 scientific conference in the U.K. Within one day, the chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Bert Bolin, denounced the theory, saying, “I find the move from this pair scientifically extremely naive and irresponsible.” He then set about discrediting the theory, any journalist that gave the theory cre dence, and most of all the Danes presenting the theory — they soon found themselves vilified, marginalized and starved of funding, despite their impeccable scientific credentials.
The mobilization to rally the press against the Danes worked brilliantly, with one notable exception. Nigel Calder, a former editor of The New Scientist who attended that 1996 conference, would not be cowed. Himself a physicist, Mr. Calder became convinced of the merits of the argument and a year later, following a lecture he gave at a CERN conference, so too did Jasper Kirkby, a CERN scientist in attendance. Mr. Kirkby then convinced the CERN bureaucracy of the theory’s importance and developed a plan to create a cloud chamber — he called it CLOUD, for “Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets.”
But Mr. Kirkby made the same tactical error that the Danes had — not realizing how politicized the global warming issue was, he candidly shared his views with the scientific community.
“The theory will probably be able to account for somewhere between a half and the whole of the increase in the Earth’s temperature that we have seen in the last century,” Mr. Kirkby told the scientific press in 1998, explaining that global warming may be part of a natural cycle in the Earth’s temperature.
The global warming establishment sprang into action, pressured the Western governments that control CERN, and almost immediately succeeded in suspending CLOUD. It took Mr. Kirkby almost a decade of negotiation with his superiors, and who knows how many compromises and unspoken commitments, to convince the CERN bureaucracy to allow the project to proceed. And years more to create the cloud chamber and convincingly validate the Danes’ groundbreaking theory.
Yet this spectacular success will be largely unrecognized by the general public for years — this column will be the first that most readers have heard of it — because CERN remains too afraid of offending its government masters to admit its success. Weeks ago, CERN formerly decided to muzzle Mr. Kirby and other members of his team to avoid “the highly political arena of the climate change debate,” telling them “to present the results clearly but not interpret them” and to downplay the results by “mak[ing] clear that cosmic radiation is only one of many parameters.” The CERN study and press release is written in bureaucratese and the version of Mr. Kirkby’s study that appears in the print edition of Nature censored the most eye-popping graph — only those who know where to look in an online supplement will see the striking potency of cosmic rays in creating the conditions for seeding clouds.
CERN, and the Danes, have in all likelihood found the path to the Holy Grail of climate science. But the religion of climate science won’t yet permit a celebration of the find.
- Lawrence Solomon is executive director of [external] Energy Probe and author of The Deniers: The world-renowned scientists who stood up against global warming hysteria, political persecution, and fraud.
First of two parts. Next week: The end of the global warming debate.
To see the striking graph that the journal Nature withheld from its print edition, click [external] here.
Inquiring minds may wish to play the Bloomberg Interview With Hoenig
The opening part of this interview is a bit of cheerleading for the Fed, not started by Hoenig, but by Bloomberg’s Michael McKee.
This was a stunning interview, far better than anyone might have ever hoped for from a Fed Governor. Bernanke should listen, but he won’t. Congress should hear, but they won’t. Obama should listen but he won’t either.
“We believe this crisis is very real [and] won’t be over tomorrow, next month or next year,” he says. “There is no silver bullet.”
Still, Merk takes solace in the efforts being undertaken in Europe both at the sovereign and individual bank levels. While “ugly, chaotic” and painful in the short-term, he believes this process will put the eurozone on steadier footing and bolster the euro.
The euro looks particularly good to Merk relative to the dollar as he sees few signs the U.S. is seriously tackling its long-term deficit issues. Thanks to the Fed’s efforts, Treasury rates are artificially low which is giving U.S. policymakers a reprieve from making tough choices.
While the Fed continues its policy of money-printing and quantitative easing, “the eurozone is on the other side of the trade,” he says. “Printing and spending less money will cause a lot of pain but it will give you a stronger euro. “
It seems that nobody loves Microsoft (MSFT) anymore. A pile of bad decisions and no breakthrough products over the past several years have kept the stock moving sideways since March, 2003. At that time, the stock was trading at $24.67, basically the same closing price as yesterday at $24.72 (08/23/2011). This is a seven-year ride of the stock going nowhere, making it the best example of a value trap in recent history.
De Novo Education online Ontario high school credits to launch September 26
Advanced Placement high school credits allow students to get a high school credit AND a university credit for taking 1 course!
Kevin Bambrough runs Sprott Resource Corp (SCP.TO), one of my favourite investments
Remember that the process of adjustment is a political one. We all know someone has to pay for the massive adjustment countries like Spain must make. The only interesting question is about who will be forced to take the brunt of the payment – workers in the form of unemployment, the middle classes in the form of confiscated savings, small businesses in the form of taxes, large businesses in the form of taxes and nationalization, foreigners, or creditors.
Deciding who pays is a political process, and because the stakes are so high it will be a very bitter process. This means, among other things, that politics will degenerate quickly.
To summarize, my predictions are:
- BRICs and other developing countries have not decoupled in any meaningful sense, and once the current liquidity-driven investment boom subsides the developing world will be hit hard by the global crisis.
- Over the next two years Chinese household consumption will continue declining as a share of GDP.
- Chinese debt levels will continue to rise quickly over the rest of this year and next.
- Chinese growth will begin to slow sharply by 2013-14 and will hit an average of 3% well before the end of the decade.
- Any decline in GDP growth will disproportionately affect investment and so the demand for non-food commodities.
- If the PBoC resists interest rate cuts as inflation declines, China may even begin slowing in 2012.
- Much slower growth in China will not lead to social unrest if China meaningfully rebalances.
- Within three years Beijing will be seriously examining large-scale privatization as part of its adjustment policy.
- European politics will continue to deteriorate rapidly and the major political parties will either become increasingly radicalized or marginalized.
- Spain and several countries, perhaps even Italy (but probably not France) will be forced to leave the euro and restructure their debt with significant debt forgiveness.
- Germany will stubbornly (and foolishly) refuse to bear its share of the burden of the European adjustment, and the subsequent retaliation by the deficit countries will cause German growth to drop to zero or negative for many years.
- Trade protection sentiment in the US will rise inexorably and unemployment stays high for a few more years.
i don’t agree with a lot Soros says, but his thoughts are a clear roadmap to what politicians are being pressured towards … but even if they succeed in creating these EuroBonds, for how long will German citizens willingly fund Greek/Spanish/Italian generous social security? or how will those countries react to Germans dictating which social policies are allowable? either way this is going to get ugly