While we spend a lot of our time pointing out critical factors driving the reality of our markets and economies, today’s note from David Rosenberg, of Gluskin Sheff, provides a spot-on and unarguable description of what every one of your favorite long-only strategist, sell-side economist, and hope-heavy CNBC anchor told you would happen – and hasn’t!
- Hedge funds have not piled into the equity market to play catch-up.
- The Super Committee did not come to a compromise (and remember Moody’s has the U.S. debt rating on “credit watch” and Standard & Poor’s still with a “negative outlook”.., shades of August).
- The Europeans have not managed to resolve let alone contain their credit crisis.
- Germany has not acquiesced and agreed to having poor sovereign credits ride off its AAA rating via a “Eurobond”.
- The ECB has not moved towards QE. Nor will it — have a look at today’s WSJ editorial on the matter. Brilliant.
- Mr. Market saw through the Q3 earnings season and recognized the lack of visibility in the guidance provided.
- China did not start to ease policy just because inflation rolled off the 6%-plus peak.
- U.S. recession risks, as per the San Francisco Fed, did not recede and actually stayed above 50% even with the better statistical tone to Q3 and Q4 GDP.
Hardly reassuring and perhaps once and for all, we will see the average talking-head for what they are – a self-aggrandizing marketing toy with the only goal of raising AUM at investor expense – as opposed to providing balanced research, investment advice, and occasionally contrarian perspectives.