Extrapolating the Presidential Polls … someone is very wrong here

i’ve been trying for weeks now to reconcile the difference between all the polls, that clearly show a very close race, and intrade which shows a slam-dunk win for obama. someone is very wrong here but the question is who. the only reason i can find is that intrade is disproportionately affected by nate silver’s analysis and that his analysis is very different (he doesn’t disclose how he does his weightings and how he comes up with an overall %). 
which view is wrong will be known tuesday but in the meantime i continue to see an enormous difference between what the polls says 50/50 and intrade/silver 70/30, and i have bet accordingly.  anybody have another explanation?
The bizarre world of Nate Silver’s voodoo political predictions

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s