i’ve been trying for weeks now to reconcile the difference between all the polls, that clearly show a very close race, and intrade which shows a slam-dunk win for obama. someone is very wrong here but the question is who. the only reason i can find is that intrade is disproportionately affected by nate silver’s analysis and that his analysis is very different (he doesn’t disclose how he does his weightings and how he comes up with an overall %).
which view is wrong will be known tuesday but in the meantime i continue to see an enormous difference between what the polls says 50/50 and intrade/silver 70/30, and i have bet accordingly. anybody have another explanation?
The bizarre world of Nate Silver’s voodoo political predictions