This Too Shall Pass

The Current Economic Troubles & The Great Future Ahead

Israel Threatens Assad with Regime Change

Posted by obront on February 6, 2010

The Israeli government may be moving beyond its fear and loathing of a Syria governed by somebody other than Bashar Assad. For years, Jerusalem has been careful to avoid doing anything or even saying anything that might destabilize Damascus. But after Syria’s foreign minister, Walid Moallem, threatened Israel this week with a war that would be fought “inside your cities,” Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman snapped. “Not only will you lose the war,” he said to Assad, “you and your family will no longer be in power.”

via Commentary » Blog Archive » Israel Threatens Assad with Regime Change.

Lieberman blasts Syrian president for claiming Israel leading Middle East towards war, says Assad made a “direct threat on Israel,” calls on Damascus to give up demand for Golan Heights.
Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman on Thursday morning blasted Syrian President Bashar Assad for saying Israel was “leading the region towards war,” and warned the leadership in Damascus that in the next war, Syria would be defeated by Israel.

Speaking at an event at Bar-Ilan University, Lieberman warned Assad that in an event of war with Israel, “not only will you lose the war, you and your family will no longer be in power.”

The leaders in Syria care only about their power, Lieberman claimed, and therefore it is important that Damascus understands a war with Israel will drive Bashar Assad and the Assad family out of power.

“I tell Assad and [Syrian Foreign Minister Walid] al-Moallem clearly – what was said yesterday marked a dramatic change of game, a direct threat on the State of Israel. I think that a line was crossed, and this cannot be tolerated,” the foreign minister said.

“We heard Defense Minister [Ehud] Barak’s sincere call for peace with Syria, and we have now received Syria’s answer. Whoever thinks territorial concessions will disconnect Damascus from the Axis of Evil is wrong,” Lieberman asserted.

http://www.jpost.com/Israel/Article.aspx?id=167771

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If Famous Filmmakers Directed the Super Bowl

Posted by obront on February 6, 2010

As the Super Bowl approaches, Slate V imagines what it might look like if major filmmakers were allowed to direct the telecast.

TARANTINO, LYNCH, ANDERSON, GODARD, HERZOG

via Slate V – If Filmmakers Directed the Super Bowl.

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The Iranian Revolution … FEB 11th ?

Posted by obront on February 6, 2010

It looks like February 11th will be the most violent confrontation to date.  The regime is taking unusual measures to put down the promised demonstrations.  In many ways it resembles the “Chinese solution.”  First, an unprecedented mobilization: 120 trains and something like a thousand buses have been deployed from as far away as 250 kilometers from the capital.  They will be used by the Revolutionary Guards and Basij to bring tens of thousands of paid “volunteers” to Tehran.  These will consist of entire families (dependent on the regime) to counter the Green Wave.  Each family gets $80 for the day, plus free food.  The regime is aiming at 300,000 thugs in the streets.  The Greens don’t think the numbers will be that high, and in any event they expect ten times that number of protesters, upwards of three million increasingly angry people, demanding freedom and justice.

Their resolve has undoubtedly been hardened by the very tough interview released earlier this week by Green leader Mir Hossein Mousavi.  As before, Mousavi put himself on the line, defying the regime to move against him as the mullahs have moved against his friends, allies, and family members.  It’s quite a challenge:

Today, the prison cells are occupied with the most sincere and devoted sons of this nation: students, professors and others. [Security forces] are trying to prosecute them with espionage or charges related to financial or sexual misconduct – charges based on expired formulas – while the real criminals and thieves who steal public money are free. Instead of looking for the real spies, they accuse decent religious people. I should take this opportunity to express my regret that all of my advisors, who are decent, honest and educated individuals, have been arrested; that I am not with them. These days, there is not a [single] night that I do not think of Imam [Khomeini], martyr Beheshti and others. I whisper to them that what was achieved is far from what they sought…

Khamenei has still not mustered the courage to strike directly at Mousavi or Karroubi, which everyone sees as a sign of weakness.  They see it as I do, as evidence that he is not prepared for a real showdown, fearing the vastly greater numbers of the Greens, and the unreliability of his armies.  He knows that the recent Green video, appealing to the armed forces to join the revolution, is having an effect.

Still, I don’t think there has been anything in recent history that compares to the regime’s planned actions.  All internal communications are supposed to be shut down: internet, cell phones, SMS, you name it.  Since this would in any case paralyze the country, offices, factories, banks and practically everything else will be shut down until the 14th;  thus they can afford to shut down the internet.  The Chinese have reportedly provided essential services (including internet) for key security offices and Khamenei’s residence.

This does not look to me like a strategy for a “final solution;” it’s more like a desperate throw of the dice with fighters of unproven courage and reliability.  We know, after all, that considerable numbers of trained police have been fired of late, that their replacements are “country boys” with little experience and probably poor discipline, and that the ex-police are likely to have become (if they weren’t already) Green recruits.

While exact numbers have not been secured, Fox News is reporting that sources within Tehran are reporting that 20 to 30 percent of the police force are being let go. That equates to roughly 5,000 officers and more that have been dismissed throughout the country.

Meanwhile the officers that have been let go are being replaced by 700 to 900 civilians during times of protests and those numbers falling during times of peace.

A former police officer told NewsCore that the police are bring replaced by village people who desperately need money and would [use] violence without hesitations.

Forces are typically under the control of the Revolutionary Guard, and they are responsible for keeping local peace. Now sources report that they will be much less organized and possibly have much less control.

One former officer was reported saying, “Many of us are being replaced by bus loads of people from villages who are willing to do anything for a piece of bread instead of protecting the ideas of the 1979 Islamic Revolution.”

via Faster, Please! » The Iranian Revolution Devours Its Young.

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Update on Canadian Credit – Not Good News

Posted by obront on February 5, 2010

According to the latest release by the Bank of Canada, the outstanding balances of various credit types held by Chartered Banks (only) have expanded by the following amounts during the period of February 2008 – November 2009 (1 year, 9 months):

  • personal loans have increased 19%
  • balances on credit cards have increased 14%
  • ‘other’ types of loans have expanded by 14%.
  • personal lines of credit have grown 39%

A housing bust would effectively stop this credit expansion and possibly shrink outstanding credit balances. When that happens, it will feel as though disposable income had just dropped by well over 13%. The result on the domestic economy and the circular effect of a credit deflation on house prices is predictable.

via america canada: Update on Canadian Credit – Not Good News.

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democracy is always temporary in nature …

Posted by obront on February 5, 2010

“A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy…”

Alexander Fraser Tytler, Scottish lawyer and writer, 1770

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Comedian Jon Stewart takes the hot seat with Bill O’Reilly

Posted by obront on February 5, 2010

In a vigorous, policy-laden debate, ‘The Daily Show’ host blasts Fox’s ‘panic attack’ coverage of Obama and the economy. O’Reilly says ‘the narrative of a couple of guys’ doesn’t represent the whole network.

via Comedian Jon Stewart takes the hot seat with Bill O’Reilly – latimes.com.

watch the full interview at fox news

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The 6 Most Statistically Full of Shit Professions

Posted by obront on February 4, 2010

People get paid a lot of money to be experts on things, so one would assume they’re much more knowledgeable than the average Joe or, at the very least, a blindfolded monkey throwing darts.

Sadly, in many cases this just isn’t true, and the so called “expertise” in question amounts to little more than a shot in the goddamn dark. Here are a few cases of experts that probably shouldn’t inspire as much confidence as they do.

via The 6 Most Statistically Full of Shit Professions | Cracked.com.

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Chanos’ Summary Thoughts On China: It’s Bad And Will Get Much Worse

Posted by obront on February 4, 2010

Chanos presents the summary observations regarding China’s real estate bubble, and some strategic comparisons between China and the US:

The fun fact I’ll give you is there is almost 70 billion sq. feet under construction right now in high rises, commercial, residential and light manufacturing. We estimate about 30 billion sq. feet is commercial, what we would consider is office space. That’s a 5×5 cubicle for every man woman and child in China. They are building high rises in cities with already 15-20% vacancy rates, and those are the government’s numbers. The real vacancy rates are higher… The Chinese banking system is the problem, it is loaded with bad debt…Our geostrategic position is a lot better than China. Keep in mind China imports almost all its essential materials… They send us stuff, we send them pieces of paper, who would you rather be.

via Chanos’ Summary Thoughts On China: It’s Bad And Will Get Much Worse | zero hedge.

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Ronald Reagan says …

Posted by obront on February 4, 2010

“Socialism only works in two places: Heaven where they don’t need it and hell where they already have it.”

“Here’s my strategy on the Cold War: We win, they lose.”

‘The most terrifying words in the English language are: I’m from the government and I’m here to help.”

‘The trouble with our liberal friends is not that they’re ignorant; it’s just that they know so much that isn’t so.”

“Of the four wars in my lifetime, none came about because the U.S. was too strong.”

“Government is like a baby: An alimentary canal with a big appetite at one end and no sense of responsibility at the other.”

‘The nearest thing to eternal life we will ever see on this earth is a government program.”

“It has been said that politics is the second oldest profession. I have learned that it bears a striking resemblance to the first.”

“Government’s view of the economy could be summed up in a few short phrases: If it moves, tax it. If it keeps moving, regulate it. And if it stops moving, subsidize it.”

“Politics is not a bad profession. If you succeed, there are many rewards; if you disgrace yourself, you can always write a book.”

Posted in financial, living, political | 1 Comment »

Quick Notes From the Volcker Hearing

Posted by obront on February 4, 2010

“I tell you sure as I am sitting here, that if banking institutions are protected by the taxpayer and they are given free reign to speculate, I may not live long enough to see the crisis, but my soul is going to come back and haunt you.”

via Quick Notes From the Volcker Hearing – Real Time Economics – WSJ.

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