This Too Shall Pass

The Current Economic Troubles & The Great Future Ahead

A complete list of things caused by global warming

Posted by obront on November 10, 2009

A complete list of things caused by global warming … and all on 0.006 deg C per year!

via warmlist.

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problems today are worse than 2008

Posted by obront on November 9, 2009

Credit is now contracting in the US; The banks are even more broke when they were then, but its hidden thanks to not marking to market; Debt has exploded as governments use fiscal and monetary policy to stimulate their economies into buying up plenty of resources they would never otherwise purchase; Manufacturing has continued to shrink; The stock market, using price to earnings for the trailing 12 months, is the most expensive it’s ever been on record; Unemployment has doubled; US incomes have fallen 5%.

If we couldn’t afford it in 2008, what makes anyone think we can afford it in 2009 or 2010? We of course cannot afford to pay a higher price for oil. In fact we can afford much less than we did in 2008.

via america canada.

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A Canadian Says “Short Canada”

Posted by obront on November 9, 2009

As an example of this ludicrous spending, Ontario, despite the record deficit, just passed all day kindergarten. The program, a concoction of the teacher’s union, insisted that the all day program shall be taught by university educated teachers. These teachers can earn almost $100,000 per year. The program is expected to serve up to 100,000 students and cost $1.5 billion per year. That’s $15,000 per year per child to receive an additional half day of kindergarten class.

Between our federal and provincial governments we will run deficits well over 100 billion. On a per capita basis, that is the equivalent of the US running a trillion dollar deficit. This is the fastest and most significant meltdown of our national finances in a single year in history. Last year almost everything was operating in surplus.

via Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis: A Canadian Says “Short Canada”.

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Sudden Jihad or “Inordinate Stress” at Ft. Hood?

Posted by obront on November 9, 2009

Far from being mystified by Hasan, we see overwhelming evidence of his jihadi intentions. He handed out Korans to neighbors just before going on his rampage and yelled “Allahu Akbar,” the jihadi’s cry, as he fired off over 100 rounds from two pistols. His superiors reportedly put him on probation for inappropriately proselytizing about Islam.

We note what former associates say about him: one, Val Finnell, quotes Hasan saying, “I’m a Muslim first and an American second” and recalls Hasan justifying suicide terrorism; another, Col Terry Lee, recalls that Hasan “claimed Muslims had the right to rise up and attack Americans”; the third, a psychiatrist who worked very closely with Hasan, described him as “almost belligerent about being Muslim.”

Finally, the jihad school of thought attributes importance to the Islamic authorities’ urging American Muslim soldiers to refuse to fight their co-religionists, thereby providing a basis for sudden jihad. In 2001, for example, responding to the U.S. attack on the Taliban, the mufti of Egypt, Ali Gum’a, issued a fatwa stating that “The Muslim soldier in the American army must refrain [from participating] in this war.” Hasan himself, echoing that message, advised a young Muslim disciple, Duane Reasoner Jr., not to join the U.S. army because “Muslims shouldn’t kill Muslims.”

If the jihad explanation is overwhelmingly more persuasive than the victim one, it’s also far more awkward to articulate. Everyone finds blaming road rage, Accutane, or an arranged marriage easier than discussing Islamic doctrines. And so, a prediction: what Ralph Peters calls the army’s “unforgivable political correctness” will officially ascribe Hasan’s assault to his victimization and will leave jihad unmentioned.

And thus will the army blind itself and not prepare for its next jihadi attack.

via Sudden Jihad or “Inordinate Stress” at Ft. Hood? :: Middle East Forum.

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Aspirin: Not Approvable

Posted by obront on November 8, 2009

Why many familiar medicines might flunk FDA approval today

With all the headlines in recent years about dangerous prescription drug side effects, many people must be wondering what happened to the days of safe, reliable medicines. Where are the new drugs that can get the job done safely? Where are the new aspirin, penicillin, acetaminophen?

As a drug discovery researcher, I can tell you something that might sound crazy: many of these older drugs would have a hard time getting approved today. Some of them would never even have made it to the FDA at all.

The best example is aspirin itself. It’s one of the foundation stones of the drug industry, and it’s hard to even guess how many billions of doses of it have been taken over the last hundred years. But if you were somehow able to change history so that aspirin had never been discovered until this year, I can guarantee you that it would have died in the lab. No modern drug development organization would touch it.

via Aspirin: Not Approvable, Medical Progress Today.

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Marc Faber Blog: Commodity Prices, Gold Price Outlook

Posted by obront on November 7, 2009

I should also mention some concerns (for now of short-term nature) I have about commodity prices including gold. A large number of commodities including oil, the CRB Index, and gold broke out on the upside in early October. I would regard a failure to hold above the “upside breakout points” in the period directly ahead with great caution. In the case of gold a decline below 1000 dollars an ounce would likely lead to further more meaningful weakness (possibly down to between 800 and 900 dollars an ounce).

via Marc Faber Blog: Commodity Prices, Gold Price Outlook.

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Maher Arar is a liar – Ezra Levant

Posted by obront on November 7, 2009

I see that Maher Arar, the huckster who lied his way into $10.5 million of our tax dollars, has had less luck with the U.S. legal system than he had with ours. A U.S. appeals court threw out his nuisance claim against the U.S. government.

Now, that’s not quite fair of me, is it? I mean, it’s not fair to Canada’s legal system because, had Arar actually gone to trial here, his case would have been thrown out, too. Arar’s testimony would have been torn to shreds; he would have wilted under cross-examination. He would have been proved the liar that he is.

So, let me retract and apologize: Arar did not have good luck with our legal system. He had good luck with a politicized inquiry that bore his name — the Arar Inquiry — but in which he never testified. Of course he didn’t: he doesn’t want to answer questions.

via Maher Arar is a liar – Ezra Levant.

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There’s a shortage of vaccines, and it’s all the fault of [Your Government Here]

Posted by obront on November 7, 2009

U.S. President Barack Obama is frustrated with shortages in the availability of the H1N1 flu vaccine but the problem was being tackled, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said Tuesday. “We’re working each and every day to fix this,” Gibbs told a daily news briefing.

Gosh. You mean other countries are having trouble delivering vaccines on time, too? It’s not just a matter of the Harper government’s incompetence or miserliness? It’s just, you know, a logistical nightmare ?

via There’s a shortage of vaccines, and it’s all the fault of [Your Government Here] – Andrew Coyne’s Blog – Macleans.ca.

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Canadian concern over climate change plummeting

Posted by obront on November 7, 2009

According to a new Climate Confidence Monitor survey released today, support for action on climate change is plummeting in Canada. Just 26% of Canadians consider global warming among their chief concerns, down from 34% in 2008.

Concern in the U.S. is even lower – just 18% , down from 26% in 2008. The UK’s level of concern is the lowest of all, a mere 15%, down from 26% in 2008.

Worldwide, the drop in concern over climate change has also dropped by 8 percentage points, from 42% to 34%.

The responses above, according to its report, reflect the “percentage of people who agree or strongly agree that climate change and how we respond to it are among the biggest issues that they worry about today.”

The Climate Confidence Monitor is produced by the HSBC Climate Partnership, comprised of organizations such as World Wildlife Fund, Earthwatch Institute and HSBC.

via Canadian concern over climate change plummeting | Energy Probe.

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The Case For Agriculture From Hedge Fund Passport Capital

Posted by obront on November 7, 2009

We believe the Chinese have a choice: they can increase the domestic yields of all major crops by 1) using better farming methods, 2) becoming more efficient at using their domestic sources of water, 3) increasing their use of inputs (fertilizers, seeds, crop chemicals), or 4) continuing to import their food and its embedded water needs from regions of the world that have excess water and land from places like the Cerrado region of Brazil. Regardless, the world is going to need more ag inputs (i.e. ag equipment, fertilizer, etc.) and grain to feed itself.
Whichever choice the Chinese make (or economic necessity makes for them), we believe we are in an industry with strong tailwinds that are not as economically sensitive to OECD demand as the most recent volatility in the various agricultural commodity markets would suggest.
It is impossible to ignore fundamental drivers that make this industry a place that Passport feels deserves our attention. If recent history is a guide, it is bound to be extremely volatile and we feel that volatility should be actively managed. This theme fits into our overall macro view of “being long what China is short” in a very profound way.

via PDF

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